Intervention at the Pio Tamayo Chair – 29-01-2018
“From El Junquito to the ANC Presidential: The Same Murder-Massacrant Line?”
The Junquito Massacre and Elections
Por Luis Manuel Aguana
Many thanks to the Pio Tamayo Chair for the opportunity to participate again in the discussion of issues of special importance for Venezuela, such as this very serious case that touches on many dimensions of the problem we face in the country.
I wrote to the following days of the massacre a note stating that the case of Oscar Pérez has not yet been evaluated in its rightful dimension, not only because of its implications for the regime for the violation of the human rights of those who were massacred in the presence of the whole world through social networks, but also because of its importance in the current politics, military reactions, as well as in the reaffirmation of the outlaw character of the State led by Nicolas Maduro. I believe that the regime has dismissed the implications of this vile assassination, dismissing it as any of those it has committed since 2002, which is very different.
But that story has already been sketched out by Prof. Blanco Muñoz in his extensive and explanatory article (in Spanish) “De la Masacre del Junquito a la Masacre Electoral” (http://historiactual.blogspot.com/2018/01/de-la-masacre-de-el-junquito-la-masacre.html). Many questions that apparently point to a scandalous open and threatening message from the regime to society as a whole, which proves everything we have seen on the streets when they throw the collectives to attack the marches, but at the same time demonstrates their surprising weakness and contradictions.
Personally, however, I do not believe that this tragic episode is the result of a cold calculation of an increase in aggression against society in order to achieve its ultimate domination. Don’t get me wrong. Certainly, what happened in the Junquito was a massacre similar to those already used by other governments in the past as Prof. Blanco Muñoz indicates, but unlike them, in my opinion this one responds to a huge disorder of the regime and its indefinite hierarchical lines.
The positions of power in Venezuela were divided before Hugo Chávez’s death between the two Galactic dolphins: Diosdado Cabello and Nicolas Maduro. In order for Cabello to accept that Maduro should remain as a successor in the Presidency, he asked PDVSA, SENIAT and the Armed Forces for a price. The crown jewels then. Hence, after Chavez’s death, the country became a bag of cats with unknown course without a single boss. The intrigues, the orders and counter-orders, the treacherous officials to one or another current have made of a government that in itself is bad in one enormously worse. And extremely dangerous for Venezuelans. And that imploded on January 15 with the murder of Oscar Perez. Both currents are united only by the instinct of survival.
Consulting these days with people who know about military intelligence and they tell me that Oscar Perez did the opposite of what is done when they intend to carry out command operations with expectations of success: he was a media man, he did not dedicate himself to what the irregular armed groups like the Colombian case do, which is why nobody really took him seriously. Result: he was located and killed by a regime that is in a panic attack. That was his tragedy. However, he was in contact with many active military officials and this has the regime in a high degree of alertness and danger.
How does this connect with the electoral issue? Clearly the regime escaped forward, covering the massacre with a call for elections from the unconstitutional constituent. They know that it is not possible to sustain this state of things for much longer without doing something. And that something is the electoral carnival, accompanied by a puppet opposition delivered and easily affordable. But like all bad circus the dwarfs grew.
The international community immediately rejected that clearly fraudulent call. For all the reasons that have long been outlined by this scribe and a group of prominent Venezuelans, the CNE is a technical trap to which the opposition goes unconditionally. The result: they’ll lose again, even if they bring in Donald Trump as a candidate. It is a complete nonsense to go to elections with an official Constituent in office, not to mention the absence of minimum conditions.
The exit? Close ranks against this electoral process, leaving the regime alone. In Venezuela, the elections ended as we knew them. Now what remains is to call us to a solution that pushes for an exit of the regime from inside and outside the country, that does not allow governance until they accept to be counted in an authentic way, being understood to mean a Popular Consultation with concerted questions, without the CNE and in the style of, 16J but this time with consequences.
Will it be difficult? Of course it will be difficult! But the game will now have to be one that involves non-violent civil resistance in any of its manifestations from all sectors of society. The other way out is to flee the country or resist until you reach that goal with the risk of perishing in the attempt. The death is already being contemplated every day by those of us who decide to face the problem in the country, be it because of hunger, crime, disease or the regime’s own violence. Then let everyone decide what they want to do…
Thank you very much….
Caracas, January 30, 2018