By Luis Manuel Aguana
The local replicas of Elliott Abrams’ statement in Colombia, reproaching the “mistake” of the Venezuelan population of requesting the application of the constitutional norms established in Article 187, numeral 11, because in his opinion it is “premature”, reminded me of the reason why I based my university studies on exact sciences.
In the exact sciences two plus two is always four – before and after – even if you don’t want it. The Law of Gravity will always work according to a universal equation as well as any of the laws of physics. What happened before will always happen after because it is a law. And because it is a law of an exact science things will always happen in that same way at any place and time. No one would doubt that if you have a stone in your hands and release it, it will fall. And we can not only predict that it will fall, but also calculate the exact speed with which it will impact the earth. Unfortunately that is not the case when it comes to disciplines such as politics or any other where the human being is the protagonist.
That’s why I’m amazed to see leading analysts of the official opposition arguing about what the U.S. government will or will not do about the Venezuelan problem, based on the history of what they’ve done, and that this will automatically translate into the truth of what they’ll do in the future, as if that were a law of an exact science. Crassus error.
All the articles and opinion messages denying the possible U.S. military intervention in Venezuela take as a fact that this will not happen (giving as true now a certain future behavior of the United States as it is the No Military Intervention) using as support what that country did or did not do in the past. Nothing could be further from reality and to show a button: the United States never thought a day before September 11, 2001 that they would unleash a worldwide persecution against someone named Osama bin Laden, and even an invasion in Afghanistan against terrorism, of proportions never seen before. In fact, that changed the model of U.S. relations with the rest of the world to this day.
So what are we talking about? What size is the stupidity that insists that there could be no foreign military intervention in Venezuela? I will tell you: the size of the stupidity of those who, convinced and convincing Venezuelans that “there will be no foreign military intervention” in Venezuela, then we must negotiate elections with a regime of criminals, corrupt, murderers and human rights violators.
We are proposing to Venezuelans a Popular Consultation, not to authorize Article 187#11 of the Constitution (which is ultimately a prerogative of the National Assembly) but for Venezuelans to order the “cessation of usurpation” and demand, in full and direct exercise of Popular Sovereignty, from the countries of the International Community, the fulfillment of the Principle of Responsibility to Protect (R2P) to which they committed at the UN Summit in 2005, so that the liberation of Venezuela can be achieved by force, preventing the continued perpetration of crimes against human rights because the one who is committing these crimes is precisely the one who exercises power in Venezuela.
187#11 comes out as a consequence of that decision, since even without being authorized by the National Assembly, the people would be giving their approval in direct exercise of their sovereignty. Note the difference here. So R2P is the foundation of our proposal, NOT 187#11. If that Consultation were to take place and for some reason the UN Security Council decides in favor of the decision that Venezuelans take in it – here and abroad – little will be said by Mr. Elliott Abrams, or Mr. Mike Pompeo himself, Secretary of State of the United States, beyond the preliminary declarations to organize a military intervention in Venezuela as part of the Military Mission of the UN Blue Helmets. So hardly anyone can guess what might happen, either outside or inside the country.
It is also possible that even with that Consultation and a positive outcome, the International Community, and especially the United States, are reluctant, as evidenced by the statements of their diplomatic spokespersons, to take that transcendental step. And that’s because now our problem doesn’t touch them from afar. Why would they sacrifice American soldiers for a problem we’re looking for? That will happen when our problem really explodes for them: that is, the explosion of drugs and terrorism from Venezuela. Then Venezuelans will have to understand that sooner or later that intervention will have to take place. Why? Because the problem will worsen in such a way that it will be impossible to hide it. So my question is, which is more convenient? Do it now or later when it will cost more blood? Because here there will be a heavily armed and consummated regime at the service of international crime. That’s for them to ask, not for us…
So far it is a problem for us and our neighbors, who directly support the massive exodus of our population and the concomitant problems they generate. But without military intervention, and as a consequence of the consolidation of the control of irregular groups in our territory, with the progressive disappearance of our Armed Forces in favor of the growth of a communist militia, highly trained by Russia, Cuba and the rest of the regime’s partners, Venezuela will be the earthly paradise for the export of drugs and terrorism in the world, especially to the United States and Europe. This is the scenario that awaits the United States and Europe, not us who are already suffering in incipient progression, but those abroad who refuse to accept the human rights situation of Venezuelans, evading a moral and political obligation imposed at a UN Summit in 2005.
If the political class does not want to see it now, fine; they will have to see it later when the problem escalates and gets bigger, so much so that it is impossible to hide. But the most serious of all is that as a consequence of the paralysis of the credible threat posed by a possible international military intervention for humanitarian purposes, the castro-chavismo-madurismo is taking hold, and now threatens with the arrest of President Juan Guaidó, dismissing with one stroke the hope of millions of Venezuelans to begin to see the end of the nightmare that this regime of death means.
And added to the above, the advance of the sectors in the official opposition that clamor for “elections” with the regime, pimping part of the International Community that still believes in electoral solutions with criminal mafias, and that desperately want to look the other way when they violate Human Rights because it makes them uncomfortable, thus covering up the millions that have robbed Venezuelans, both the regime and its cohabiting opposition. Don’t be horrified, that happened when the Jews in Europe were cremated.
When Venezuelans see it evident that they changed the order of the mantra, disappearing the “cessation of usurpation” as the first obligatory postulate to get out of this nightmare, we will know that the bloodiest phase of our struggle for freedom will begin here…
Caracas, April 5, 2019