By Luis Manuel Aguana
From the classification suggested by political analyst Laszlo Beke in his Summary of political events of March 29, 1818, “Resignation vs. Election “, and widely disseminated on social networks, we extract the first part:
“… An acquaintance classifies the opponents in the following groups, where it does not include Henry Falcón and his team as he considers them collaborators:
Opposition – Those who still consider that with elections a change of government can be achieved. With greater or lesser vehemence, some leaders and parties of the Frente Amplio continue to demonstrate for this option, playing with dates from May to December 2,018. Surprisingly within their demands and electoral expectations is never the previous disappearance of the ANC, even proposing another dialogue more now in Puerto Rico. The Frente Amplio option as a single response has been weakened, as the key elements of the Civil Society that made this extraordinary act in the UCV have expressed their dissatisfaction with the subsequent management of the components of the MUD from the act of Chacao.
Dissidence – Those who seek the resignation of the President through pressure, support international actions, ignore the ANC and aim for elections after a transition. Their great challenge is to connect with social protest. Here the best known group is Soy Venezuela.
Resistance – It is made up of groups that were greatly diminished after the brutal repression of last year’s protests and other groups similar to Oscar Perez. Surely they still exist underground and are willing to use force to achieve their goal of change of government.
In this hard and difficult moment for Venezuela, the most logical thing that should happen is a rapprochement between the Dissidence and the Opposition parties that finally join the idea of Resignation instead of Election as a demand for the future.”
Group classifications are theoretical constructs that allow analysis to explain a reality that is difficult to address. Unfortunately, however, as in any other model, they sometimes fail to address some realities that do not fit the classification.
In the classification of the trilogy pointed out by the acquaintance of the analyst Beke, we do not include those of us who do not propose a “Resignation” of Nicolás Maduro in the face of an opposition to the regime, nor those of us who do not agree with looking for rifles to “force out” Maduro, other than the one that involves the strength of the popular will. Hence, this trilogy does not fully explain the Venezuelan political reality.
In our opinion, classification is not among those who seek to impose themselves on a dictatorship through elections that are impossible to win, or for Maduro to renounce (among other things because that is asking for apples from a mango tree), or to seek widespread violence where the unarmed population has everything to lose.
In our opinion, the situation must be viewed from the perspective of solving the problem of achieving the triumph of the true will of Venezuelans over a regime that has been imposed by force, because it has bought the participation of the Venezuelan official “opposition”; and to the extent that this purchase has become evident, part of that same opposition has been set aside, either for reasons of honesty or clear political interests, generating on the way pockets of resistance, because in the middle of that transit the regime has produced destruction and death.
Since long before the presidential elections of October 2012 and later, before the Capriles-Maduro elections of April 14, 2013, a group of Venezuelans publicly denounced the Venezuelan electoral system and asked for conditions to that opposition that now rips its clothes off for “electoral conditions”. (see in Spanish “To the Venezuelan democratic society in the face of the call for elections on April 14, 2013”, at http://declaraciondecaracas.blogspot.com/2013/03/ante-las-elecciones-del-14-de-abril.html).
There was no such “Dissidence” then, nor were there any “Resistance” groups – they were all part of it – only an electoralist opposition that openly ignored our warnings to go unconditionally to that electoral slaughterhouse that represented 14A-2013, where Henrique Capriles, faced with the immense fraud perpetrated by Maduro, called us to play pots and pans and dance salsa under the excuse that he wanted to avoid death with the regime. Well, at the end of the day we had not only one fraud but several and hundreds of deaths.
Little by little, the Venezuelans, with so much coup and electoral disappointment, have been understanding by the bad way that the vote counting system is corrupted and is a trap. How unfortunate that they didn’t believe us then! However, the regime and its “opposing” agents insist on taking us down that road without guarantees, pretending that we are going to elect a new President with an unconstitutional Constituent in full activity, doing as they please.
From that group of Venezuelans who already understood the beatings and after many years of being warned that the electoral path was flawed, and that now they also agree that the Constituent Assembly of Maduro is illegitimate, come those who the previous classification calls “Dissidence”. But since they cannot suggest the electoral path, they skip that important part of the political discourse without explaining how to reach that transition, beyond asking for the resignation of the regime. That may work as a radical opponent’s political discourse but very little as a proposal to get out of this very serious problem in a peaceful and constitutional way.
“Resistance” is nothing more than a consequence of all this tragedy and it is more than logical when there is a regime that tramples on human rights and kills Venezuelans. However, the political response necessary for the displacement of these criminals will not come from there.
Then the classification of the opposition in the Opposition-Dissidence-Resistance trilogy would not be the most appropriate because the grouping is based on mechanisms that have proved unfeasible for regime change: The “Opposition” through elections, the “Dissidence” through the resignation of Maduro, and the “Resistance” through force, recalling veiledly the 2014 discussion when to change the regime, one political group insisted on elections (the MUD) and the other that saw no other solution to go to the streets to demand an “exit” until the regime gave way. Of these have been separated in the last 3 years those who still think of a tougher opposition, calling themselves “Resistance”.
What should then be the classification criterion? At this stage, and given the seriousness of the situation in Venezuela, the opponents should be grouped according to the detailed description they give to achieve the replacement of the regime. The “Opposition” is selling us that through ” with conditions ” elections we will be able to defeat the regime with this CNE. They say that they will win by the majority rejection of the government by the population; and then they will “take over” the unconstitutional Constituent of the regime. As crazy as it may seem, that’s the plan they’re upholding.
In a new classification, both what they call “Dissidence” and “Resistance” maintain the same plan: to pressure – one more “light” than the other – for Maduro to leave by any means, including an internal military pronouncement or humanitarian interference, by national and international pressure. It is clear that this would involve the appointment of a transitional government that none of them explains where it will come from, but that is their plan. On the other hand, to suggest that the electoral “Opposition” joins the “Dissidence” to achieve a “Resignation” of Maduro and his criminals, as suggested above, is an aspiration that goes through the extinction of the “opposition” political dinosaurs that are still alive and kicking in this new MUD costume.
But finally there is a group not mentioned in the analysis, the National Constituent Alliance-ANCO with its Alternative Agenda for Venezuelathat proposes a Popular Consultation that forces a transition government from within the elected representatives of the people in a legitimate Assembly. National Constituent Assembly by Popular Initiative, prior to the dismantling of the Constitutional Constituent of the regime. The Transitional Government would be born from the hands of some elected Constituents WITHOUT THE CNE, through an Ad Hoc Electoral Council specifically ordered by the people for that function in the Popular Consultation.
In short, there would only be 3 groups of opponents in a new classification: a) those who believe in elections with the Tiby CNE; b) those who believe in Maduro’s resignation as a consequence of an internal military pronouncement and/or humanitarian intervention; and c) those who believe that a Popular Consultation will generate the national and international political strength to bring about a change in the state of affairs -including the military scenario- (which is why we call it the Alternative Agenda) due to the popular demonstration that is generated. That would be the true opposition classification, but unfortunately it is not very well known for public debate. Then let’s give it the necessary publicity and start today….
Caracas, March 30, 2018