By Luis Manuel Aguana
If one thing is already clear to Venezuelans it is that the transitional government that we have demanded so much of the official opposition politicians to cover Maduro’s absolute lack due to his conviction for corruption, either leaves the National Assembly in its new legislature as of January 5, 2019 (they could do so before but say they will wait for a new Directive), or leaves the legitimate Supreme Court of Justice in exile from now on. What we don’t know in what terms that government would come out in each case.
And why do I wonder on what terms? Because that’s what will make the big difference in how we’re going to get out – if we get out – of the militarized-drug tyranny that governs Venezuela, Diego Arria dixit.
If it comes out of the National Assembly, it’s very complicated. The strenuous efforts that the so-called Frente Amplio (because now they don’t even allow themselves to be called MUD) has made to convince Venezuelans that “now we will” get out of “this” as of January 10, pass because a credible route of non cohabitation is presented to the country. But these new promises entrench the official opposition, given the null popular support shown by the very low electoral participation of 9D, although Tiby has more than doubled it.
At first I thought that the strategy of the official opposition of the National Assembly would be to leave that and continue “business as usual” without taking any decision about that transitional government, as they had done until now, thus lengthening the power vacuum, and alleging from then on the usurpation of the regime.
But now it seems that the latest news points to a possible negotiation in the terms suggested by the President of Datanalisis, José Antonio Gil Yepes, in a recent interview: “We are going to recognize the President of the Republic, but he must accept that we have to renew 13 magistrates who were appointed outside the norms established by the National Constitution; we have to appoint the Comptroller, the Defender and the Prosecutor because they were imposed by the ANC and that is not the constitutional body that should appoint these three positions. It is also necessary to appoint two rectors (CNE) who have been defeated for two years by the AN and not by the ANC” (see in Spanish Gil Yepes: Opposition can recognize Maduro in exchange for AN appointing high authorities http://www.noticierodigital.com/2018/12/gil-yepes-oposicion-puede-reconocer-maduro-cambio-la-an-nombre-altas-autoridades/). And that seems to me that beyond a suggestion, it seems like a breakthrough in covert negotiations with the government. Gil Yepes is an experienced political operator and if he is announcing it publicly it is because of something that is happening in the official opposition.
If that were to happen, the legitimate TSJ in exile would disappear with one stroke of the pen and all its decisions (which would not be the displeasure of the National Assembly and the regime, so they would agree on objectives), including Maduro’s sentence for corruption. All this without counting all the blood spilled in the streets to get here. Needless to say, that would be an opposition “autosuicide,” or the official confirmation of the beginning of a stage of Vichy cohabitation in Venezuela.
In the same way, the international pressure on Nicolás Maduro’s regime would end immediately, since the opposition and the government would be “dialoguing” as some countries of the International Community openly wish. Can you imagine how much money would be managed to make that happen? I don’t even want to imagine…
If this materializes, the regime would have the free way for the approval of its new communist Constitution, which unlike what Yepes suggests, the ANC could approve without the need for a referendum because the constitutional change would be proposed through reform, incorporating all the communist articles that would disappear from the Public Powers -such as the National Assembly- as we know them now, but without taking away their “legacy” from Comandante Chávez. It would be the Constitution of 1999 but adjusted to the communist dream of the Galactico, what about it? Let those who believe that the regime will call for a Referendum to approve its communist marriage, descend from that opposition cloud.
Everything would suggest then that this opposition play for January by the National Assembly would seem not to be for the benefit of Venezuelans but for those who are selling us, whether they negotiate on the terms that Yepes says, or others with the regime.
That leaves us then with the legitimate TSJ in exile with that serious responsibility. What do you think would happen if the legitimate High Court appointed a National Emergency Government in exile? The first to reject it, before the regime itself, would be the official opponents of the Frente Amplio. They would never accept, as the President of the National Assembly has already said, that this body should name a government before them.
Even some important opponents who are not in the Frente Amplio do not accept that the TSJ legitimize it, even knowing that they have the constitutional faculty to do so if the Assembly does not fill the power vacuum, agreeing with Omar Barboza’s criterion that this government “must come out from Venezuela”, putting the power pretensions of local politicians first before coming out of the serious crisis the country is going through. And that is what has kept us fucked (and forgive the anglicism) for 20 years. That is, I prefer Maduro to another opponent wherever I win the game. What a way to conceive of politics.
So, both that the National Assembly names a new Vichy government, and that the TSJ legitimizes a government that is rejected in Venezuela by the official opposition, to take care of organizing outside the country what is necessary to get the International Community to recognize the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) the Human Rights of Venezuelans, we are at the edge of entering a phase of massive resistance, either to resist by all the means at our disposal the continuity of Maduro in power unconstitutionally, with collaborationist aid, or to decisively support the efforts made by a National Emergency Government in exile to displace the regime from outside. And we are less than a month away from all this happening. We are then at the edge of resistance.
Caracas, December 15, 2018